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如何选择新兴市场投资基金

作者:英语作文网   来源: www.en369.cn  

如何选择新兴市场投资基金
Emerging Markets: Why So Many Funds Are Flawed



 

After a rough year and a half, emerging-market stocks have come back down to reasonable levels. But investors who want exposure to the faster-growing economies of the developing world should think twice about standard emerging-market mutual funds. Funds that focus on smaller stocks in the developing world offer a much purer play.
新兴市场股票在经历了一年半的震荡走势之后已经回归合理价位。但投资者如果希望投资增速较快的发展中经济体,在面对那些公认权威的新兴市场共同基金时必须多加斟酌。相较而言,专注于发展中世界小型股票的基金能够提供更加纯粹的投资渠道。
Stock markets in emerging economies such as Brazil, China and India have been on a roller-coaster ride for nearly a decade. For the five years ended Oct. 31, 2007, the MSCI Emerging Markets index, which tracks the stock markets of 21 developing countries, rose 372%─only to collapse by two-thirds during the financial crisis, a steeper fall than that suffered by Western markets. Similarly, the index more than doubled in the aftermath of the crisis, only to start falling again after April 2011.
巴西、中国和印度等新兴经济体股市在近十年的时间里呈现出过山车般的走势。在截至2007年10月31日的五年中,追踪21个发展中国家股市的摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Markets)上涨了372%──但在金融危机期间下挫三分之二,跌幅高于西方市场。此外,该指数金融危机后上涨了逾一倍,但2011年4月份之后开始再度下跌。
Emerging-market stocks have been hit by a number of factors. Certain countries, such as Brazil and China, have seen a slowdown in growth. And the European debt crisis caused many investors to retreat from volatile assets of all sorts.
有一些因素对新兴市场股市构成了打击。巴西和中国等一些国家经济增长放缓。而欧洲债务危机则导致许多投资者规避各类高波动性的资产。
The decline has left overall valuations looking reasonable. The MSCI Emerging Market index trades at around 12 times earnings for the past 12 months, compared with 15 times at the end of 2010 and 17 times at the end of 2007. In many markets, dividend yields─that is, dividends as a percentage of stock price─look attractive, especially when compared with the paltry 2.1% offered by the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. According to FactSet, the overall yield on Asia-Pacific markets, excluding Japan, is about 2.6%. The yields on the Brazilian and Russian stock markets are about 4% each.
股市的下跌使总体估值趋于合理。摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数过去12个月的市盈率在12倍左右,而2010年年底和2007年年底的市盈率分别为15倍和17倍。许多市场的股息率(即股息与股价之比)比较吸引人,与标准普尔500指数区区2.1%的股息率相比尤其如此。FactSet的数据显示,不包括日本在内的亚太市场总体股息率在2.6%左右。巴西和俄罗斯股市的股息率均在4%左右。
Despite recent concerns about near-term growth, the longer-term emerging-markets story remains attractive. Emerging-market economies are projected to expand much more quickly than those in the U.S. and the West, as they continue to industrialize and hundreds of millions of consumers there see rising standards of living. The International Monetary Fund predicts emerging-market economies will account for 60% of the world's economic growth over the next five years. Per-capita output in Asia, excluding Japan, is predicted to rise 48%, compared with 18% in the advanced economies, albeit from a lower base.
尽管人们近期对新兴市场的短期增长前景感到担忧,但其中长期前景依然具有吸引力。新兴市场经济体的发展速度预计会比美国和其他西方国家快得多,因为它们在继续推进工业化,而这些地区数以亿计消费者的生活标准也在不断提高。国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund, 简称IMF)预计,未来五年新兴市场经济体将在全球经济增长中占据60%的份额。不包括日本在内的亚洲人均本地生产总值预计将增长48%(尽管基数较低),而发达经济体的增幅为18%。
Rob Arnott, chairman of Research Affiliates, an investment-advisory firm, says emerging markets are much more appealing than U.S. stocks at current valuations. 'If the growth is higher and the yield is higher, it's a better asset class,' he says, adding that he is 'cautiously optimistic' on emerging markets from here.
投资顾问公司Research Affiliates的董事长阿诺特(Rob Arnott)称,从当前的估值来看,新兴市场比美国股市的吸引力要大得多。他说:“如果增速和收益较高,则新兴市场资产是更好的资产品种。”他还表示,他对今后新兴市场的走势持“审慎乐观”态度。
To be sure, faster economic growth doesn't necessarily yield higher investment returns, according to a study by University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter. On the contrary, investors in fast-growing countries can sometimes earn lower returns─especially if they overpay for stocks during a boom. The current situation seems to reduce that risk.
当然,较快的经济增速不一定能与较高的投资回报划等号,这是佛罗里达大学(University of Florida)金融学教授里特尔(Jay Ritter)的一项研究得出的结论。有时候,投资高速增长的国家回报甚至会比较低──尤其是当投资者在牛市时以过高价格买进股票的情况下。当前的状况似乎使这一风险减小了。
There is another reason for owning emerging-market stocks: diversification. Developing economies already account for 38% of the global economy, according to the IMF. Spreading investment risk across many stocks, markets and economies improves returns and lowers volatility over time.
持有新兴市场股票还有另一个原因,即使资产配置多元化。IMF数据显示,发展中经济体已在全球经济中占据了38%的份额。将投资风险分散到许多股票、市场和经济体中可以逐步改善回报水平并降低波动性。
Yet investing in emerging markets isn't as straightforward as it might seem. Most emerging-market mutual funds are heavily weighted toward a small number of big multinationals, such as Taiwan Semiconductor, Petroleo Brasileiro or South Korea's Samsung Electronics, which are much more dependent on the global economy than on fast-growing domestic economies. A quarter of the MSCI Emerging Market index is accounted for by energy and raw-materials companies, whose fortunes also are more dependent on the global commodity markets than on domestic demand.
但投资新兴市场并不像表面上那样简单。多数新兴市场共同基金都向少数几家大型跨国公司大幅倾斜,比如台湾积体电路制造股份有限公司(Taiwan Semiconductor)、巴西石油公司(Petroleo Brasileiro)和韩国三星电子(Samsung Electronics)等,这些公司对全球经济的依赖性更强,而较少依赖迅速增长的国内经济。摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数中,能源和原材料公司占据四分之一的权重,这些公司的财富也更多依赖全球大宗商品市场,而不是国内需求。
The reason for this is that mutual funds and exchange-traded funds rely on independent indexes, of which MSCI is the best known, when constructing their portfolios. The indexes are based mathematically on the market capitalization of the companies.
这种现象的原因在于,共同基金和交易所买卖基金在构建投资组合时依靠的是独立指数(其中最著名的就是摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数)。而这些指数是以数学方式、基于公司市值编制的。
'MSCI really didn't make an active decision to give Samsung a high weighting,' says Dimitris Melas, an executive director at MSCI, 'it was market participants who made that decision.'
摩根士丹利资本国际执行董事梅拉斯(Dimitris Melas)说:“摩根士丹利资本国际并没有自主决定给三星电子较高权重,这是由市场参与者决定的。”
Mr. Arnott's firm manages indexes based on an alternative methodology, using company fundamentals rather than market values to weight stocks. His emerging-market index is the basis for the PowerShares FTSE RAFI Emerging Markets Portfolio exchange-traded fund, which charges a management fee of 0.85% a year. Theoretically, the approach has merit. (At the moment, though, the portfolio has a heavy 31% weighting toward energy and raw-materials stocks, which might give many investors pause.)
阿诺特所在公司管理的指数基于另一种方法,即运用公司基本面、而不是市值来决定股票权重。他的新兴市场指数被交易所买卖基金PowerShares富时RAFI新兴市场投资组合基金(PowerShares FTSE RAFI Emerging Markets Portfolio)作为构建投资组合的基础,该基金每年收取0.85%的管理费。从理论上说,这种方式是有优点的。(不过,目前该基金投资组合中能源和原材料股权重很大,为31%,可能会让许多投资者三思。)
There are other options. Arguably the purest approach might be to invest in smaller-company emerging-market stocks. They are generally much more exposed to domestic economies than their larger counterparts. Todd McClone, manager of the $5 million William Blair Emerging Markets Small Cap Growth Fund, which charges 1.65% a year, says an analysis by his firm found that the top 10 stocks in the small-cap index generated about 90% of their revenues from domestic demand in their home countries.
投资者也有一些其他选择。最纯粹的方式或许可以说是投资新兴市场的小型公司股票。一般而言,这些公司与国内经济的联系比大中型公司要紧密得多。William Blair新兴市场小型股发展基金(William Blair Emerging Markets Small Cap Growth Fund)经理麦克龙(Todd McClone)称,他所在公司进行的一项分析发现,小型股指数的头10大成分股公司有90%左右的收入来自它们所在国家的国内需求。该基金管理着500万美元资金,每年收取1.65%的管理费。
Among the low-fee options for investing in emerging-market small-cap funds are the SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF, which charges 0.65% of assets per year in fees, and the WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Fund, which charges 0.64%.
如果要选择管理费较低的新兴市场小型股基金,可以考虑投资SPDR标准普尔新兴市场小型股交易所买卖基金(SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF),该基金每年收取0.65%的管理费,WisdomTree新兴市场小型股派息基金(WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend Fund)收取0.64%的管理费。
The caveat is that smaller stocks tend to be much more volatile, especially in emerging markets. But they offer a much more direct bet on the developing world than major multinationals that happen to have their headquarters there.
需要提醒投资者的是,小型股票的波动幅度往往会大得多,在新兴市场尤其如此。但与总部设在新兴市场的大型跨国公司相比,它们能够提供更加直接的发展中世界投资机会。

 

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