全球公司债频发 收益率堪忧 Global bond rush disguises lack of high-yield assets作者:英语作文网 来源: www.en369.cn
全球公司债频发 收益率堪忧 Global bond rush disguises lack of high-yield assets
With a temporary solution to the US fiscal cliff agreed and the European Central Bank’s pledge to backstop the euro soothing nerves, US companies including Ford Motor and General Electric Capital have taken advantage of a broad market rally. Last week they sold over $12bn in new debt in a single day.
随着美国就“财政悬崖”达成临时解决方案、欧洲央行(ECB)承诺力挺欧元，市场的紧张情绪正趋于缓和。福特汽车(Ford Motor)、通用电气金融(GE Capital)等美国企业都抓住了市场全面反弹的机会。上周，这些企业在单日内发债金额超过了120亿美元。
European banks and Chinese property developers were also quick off the mark.
Yet amid the market glow, investors are fretting that the expected January flurry will disguise a more fundamental issue – a lack of supply of high-yielding assets.
With some government bond yields at record lows, investors last year chased returns in other parts of the bond market. Now they could struggle to repeat 2012’s performance.
Analysts predict that debt sales in the US this year will fall short of the record levels of 2012, when $1.4tn of bonds were sold. Barclays estimates overall debt sales in the US this year of $1tn, with up to $300bn coming from borrowers with ratings below investment-grade, down from $345bn in 2011.
Société Générale, meanwhile, predicts that European corporate bond issuance could be down by a third this year, with that from financial institutions falling 10 per cent.
“There is very high demand for credit assets at the moment, with too much money chasing too few assets.” says Neil Williamson, head of European credit research at Aberdeen Asset Management.
安本资产管理公司(Aberdeen Asset Management)欧洲信贷研究主管尼尔•威廉姆森(Neil Williamson)表示：“目前信贷资产需求非常旺盛，资金太多，可供投资的资产却太少。”
“The worry is there is not much out there to buy with any yield, especially if you are sensitive to ratings and volatility.”
Part of the overall supply issue relates to banks either being reliant on central bank funding or shrinking their balance sheets in response to regulatory changes and weak growth. Lenders have less need to tap public debt market.
In Europe there is also less pent-up demand than at the start of 2012 when banks raced to issue, buoyed by an injection of cheap funding from the ECB.
Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” speech and the ECB government bond buying scheme launch in September paved the way for a strong second half to 2012 during which banks from the eurozone periphery that were not able to access markets issued, while those from the core started pre-funding for 2013.
Many non-financial corporates, meanwhile, have already taken advantage of record low borrowing costs to fund in the capital markets. Global high-yield corporate bond issuance hit a record in 2012. And in Europe, where companies have historically relied on borrowing directly from banks, net corporate bond issuance overtook loan issuance.
“If corporate volumes are going to get even near last year, I expect we will need to see corporate M and A activity, and associated refinancing. Undoubtedly, if companies feel a better macro environment, it may encourage them to put surplus cash on their balance sheet to work,” says Mark Lewellen, head of European corporate DCM at Barclays.
“Even if funding at historically low yields is possible, if you don’t need the money, then it is expensive to have it just sitting on your balance sheet,” he says.
Others hope that because yields on corporate debt are so low – with the average yield on junk bonds in the US falling below 6 per cent for the first time last week – they will continue to entice companies.
“For borrowers, these rates are still extremely attractive,” says Randy Parrish, head of US high yield for ING US Investment Management.
Demetrio Salorio, global head of debt capital markets at SocGen, says that while the start to this year feels less “exuberant”, there is nevertheless a good pipeline of deals. More importantly, there are “fewer clouds on the horizon” to knock sentiment.
荷兰国际集团美国投资管理公司(ING US Investment Management)美国高收益率债券主管兰迪•帕里什(Randy Parrish)表示：“对于借款者而言，这样的收益率仍是非常诱人的。”
He says bank and corporate issuers are relaxed, aware that investors are sitting on lots of cash but finding that there is not enough supply.
Nevertheless, some issuers in countries such as Spain and Italy, which were locked out of funding markets for parts of last year, are likely to take advantage of investor demand for higher-yielding assets
Little surprise then that there was huge investor demand for BBVA’s senior unsecured debt issue last week and Unicredit’s covered bond on Monday.
The hunt for yield also aided high-yield issues from Chinese real estate developers Country Garden and Kaisa last week, both of which were oversubscribed.
“Investors are looking for returns further down the credit spectrum – namely high-yield bonds”, said Herman van den Wall Bake, head of fixed income capital markets, Asia at Deutsche Bank. “That’s where you’ll see a lot of interest, at least in the near term.”
Eric Brard, global head of fixed income at Amundi, says he is less concerned about overall supply but does remain focused on the hunt for yield.
“投资者正在评级较低的信贷产品——即高收益率债券——中寻求较高的回报率。”德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)亚洲固定收益资本市场部门负责人赫尔曼•范登•沃尔•贝克(Herman van den Wall Bake)表示，“投资者的兴趣点将集中在这一类产品上，至少在近期内将是如此。”
He sees 2012 as a transition year when investors were more concerned about the general trends. In 2013, he expects strong demand for riskier assets in the periphery but says investors will need to be more specific about which credits they target.
“It’s going to be more about name picking, and it will be more favourable to portfolio mangers with the ability to analyse individual credits.”