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全球公司债频发 收益率堪忧 Global bond rush disguises lack of high-yield assets

作者:英语作文网   来源: www.en369.cn  

全球公司债频发 收益率堪忧 Global bond rush disguises lack of high-yield assets

With a temporary solution to the US fiscal cliff agreed and the European Central Bank’s pledge to backstop the euro soothing nerves, US companies including Ford Motor and General Electric Capital have taken advantage of a broad market rally. Last week they sold over $12bn in new debt in a single day.
随着美国就“财政悬崖”达成临时解决方案、欧洲央行(ECB)承诺力挺欧元,市场的紧张情绪正趋于缓和。福特汽车(Ford Motor)、通用电气金融(GE Capital)等美国企业都抓住了市场全面反弹的机会。上周,这些企业在单日内发债金额超过了120亿美元。
European banks and Chinese property developers were also quick off the mark.
欧洲的银行和中国的房地产开发商也不失时机地采取了行动。
Yet amid the market glow, investors are fretting that the expected January flurry will disguise a more fundamental issue – a lack of supply of high-yielding assets.
然而,在市场红红火火之际,投资者担心,尽管1月预计将是发债活动频繁的一个月,但一个更根本的问题可能被掩盖,即:高收益资产供应不足。
With some government bond yields at record lows, investors last year chased returns in other parts of the bond market. Now they could struggle to repeat 2012’s performance.
由于一些政府债券收益率处于创纪录低位,投资者去年一直在债券市场的其他领域追求高回报率。对投资者而言,去年的业绩如今可能很难再现。
Analysts predict that debt sales in the US this year will fall short of the record levels of 2012, when $1.4tn of bonds were sold. Barclays estimates overall debt sales in the US this year of $1tn, with up to $300bn coming from borrowers with ratings below investment-grade, down from $345bn in 2011.
分析师预测,美国今年的债券发行量将不及2012年的创纪录高位,去年美国的债券发行规模达到1.4万亿美元。巴克莱(Barclays)估计,美国今年的债券发行总规模将达到1万亿美元,其中将有最多3000亿美元来自评级低于投资级别的借款者,这个数字低于2011年的3450亿美元。
Société Générale, meanwhile, predicts that European corporate bond issuance could be down by a third this year, with that from financial institutions falling 10 per cent.
同时,法国兴业银行(Société Générale)预测,今年欧洲公司债发行规模可能下降三分之一,金融机构的债券发行规模可能下降10%。
“There is very high demand for credit assets at the moment, with too much money chasing too few assets.” says Neil Williamson, head of European credit research at Aberdeen Asset Management.
安本资产管理公司(Aberdeen Asset Management)欧洲信贷研究主管尼尔•威廉姆森(Neil Williamson)表示:“目前信贷资产需求非常旺盛,资金太多,可供投资的资产却太少。”
“The worry is there is not much out there to buy with any yield, especially if you are sensitive to ratings and volatility.”
“市场担心,可供购买的各种收益率的债券都不是很多,特别是如果你对评级和波动性敏感的话。”
Part of the overall supply issue relates to banks either being reliant on central bank funding or shrinking their balance sheets in response to regulatory changes and weak growth. Lenders have less need to tap public debt market.
总体供应问题的部分原因在于,一些银行依赖央行融资,以及一些银行为应对监管政策的变化和增长的疲软而正在缩小资产负债表规模。银行利用公共债务市场融资的需求降低了。
In Europe there is also less pent-up demand than at the start of 2012 when banks raced to issue, buoyed by an injection of cheap funding from the ECB.
在欧洲,相比2012年伊始、银行受欧洲央行廉价资金注入的激励而争相发债时,一度积累起来的资金需求如今已降低。
Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” speech and the ECB government bond buying scheme launch in September paved the way for a strong second half to 2012 during which banks from the eurozone periphery that were not able to access markets issued, while those from the core started pre-funding for 2013.
欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)发表演讲,声称将“不惜付出任何代价”保卫欧元,欧洲央行去年9月也推出政府债券购买计划,这些举措为2012年下半年的强劲表现铺平了道路。2012年下半年期间,一度无法从市场上获得资金的欧元区外围国家的银行得以发行债券,而欧洲核心国家的银行则开始为2013年提前融资。
Many non-financial corporates, meanwhile, have already taken advantage of record low borrowing costs to fund in the capital markets. Global high-yield corporate bond issuance hit a record in 2012. And in Europe, where companies have historically relied on borrowing directly from banks, net corporate bond issuance overtook loan issuance.
同时,很多非金融企业已开始利用借款成本处于创纪录低位这一点,在资本市场融资。2012年,全球高收益率公司债发行规模创下历史新高。而在欧洲,公司债净发行量去年超过了贷款发放额。欧洲的企业过去一直依赖于直接从银行借款。
“If corporate volumes are going to get even near last year, I expect we will need to see corporate M and A activity, and associated refinancing. Undoubtedly, if companies feel a better macro environment, it may encourage them to put surplus cash on their balance sheet to work,” says Mark Lewellen, head of European corporate DCM at Barclays.
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“Even if funding at historically low yields is possible, if you don’t need the money, then it is expensive to have it just sitting on your balance sheet,” he says.
巴克莱欧洲公司债务资本市场(DCM)主管马克•卢埃林(Mark Lewellen)表示:“如果公司债发行规模要达到接近去年的水平,我预测就将需要有更多企业并购活动以及相关的再融资活动。毫无疑问,如果企业认为宏观环境转好,可能就会受到鼓舞、将资产负债表中的多余现金投入运转。”
Others hope that because yields on corporate debt are so low – with the average yield on junk bonds in the US falling below 6 per cent for the first time last week – they will continue to entice companies.
卢埃林表示:“即便能够以处于历史低位的收益率来融资,但如果你根本不需要这笔资金,那么,把资金白白闲置在那里也是昂贵的。”
“For borrowers, these rates are still extremely attractive,” says Randy Parrish, head of US high yield for ING US Investment Management.
其他一些人希望,目前如此低的公司债收益率(美国垃圾债券平均收益率上周首次跌破6%)会诱使企业继续发债。
Demetrio Salorio, global head of debt capital markets at SocGen, says that while the start to this year feels less “exuberant”, there is nevertheless a good pipeline of deals. More importantly, there are “fewer clouds on the horizon” to knock sentiment.
荷兰国际集团美国投资管理公司(ING US Investment Management)美国高收益率债券主管兰迪•帕里什(Randy Parrish)表示:“对于借款者而言,这样的收益率仍是非常诱人的。”
He says bank and corporate issuers are relaxed, aware that investors are sitting on lots of cash but finding that there is not enough supply.
法国兴业银行全球债务资本市场业务主管迪米特里欧斯•萨洛里奥(Demetrio Salorio)表示,尽管今年年初市场似乎不太“活跃”,但潜在交易很多。更为重要的是,未来可能打击市场情绪的“乌云已经开始消散”。
Nevertheless, some issuers in countries such as Spain and Italy, which were locked out of funding markets for parts of last year, are likely to take advantage of investor demand for higher-yielding assets
萨洛里奥表示,银行和公司债券发行者如今气定神闲,因为知道投资者手上有大量现金却没有那么多债券可供购买。
Little surprise then that there was huge investor demand for BBVA’s senior unsecured debt issue last week and Unicredit’s covered bond on Monday.
然而,西班牙和意大利等国的一些债券发行者可能会借机利用投资者对较高收益率资产的需求。这些债券发行者去年有部分时间曾被挡在融资市场门外。
The hunt for yield also aided high-yield issues from Chinese real estate developers Country Garden and Kaisa last week, both of which were oversubscribed.
那么,投资者对西班牙对外银行(BBVA)上周发行的高级无担保债券以及意大利裕信银行(Unicredit)周一发行的担保债券的需求旺盛,也就毫不奇怪了。
“Investors are looking for returns further down the credit spectrum – namely high-yield bonds”, said Herman van den Wall Bake, head of fixed income capital markets, Asia at Deutsche Bank. “That’s where you’ll see a lot of interest, at least in the near term.”
投资者对高收益率的追求也助了中国房地产开发商碧桂园(Country Garden)和佳兆业(Kaisa)一臂之力。两家公司发行的高收益率债券都获得了超额认购。
Eric Brard, global head of fixed income at Amundi, says he is less concerned about overall supply but does remain focused on the hunt for yield.
“投资者正在评级较低的信贷产品——即高收益率债券——中寻求较高的回报率。”德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)亚洲固定收益资本市场部门负责人赫尔曼•范登•沃尔•贝克(Herman van den Wall Bake)表示,“投资者的兴趣点将集中在这一类产品上,至少在近期内将是如此。”
He sees 2012 as a transition year when investors were more concerned about the general trends. In 2013, he expects strong demand for riskier assets in the periphery but says investors will need to be more specific about which credits they target.
Amundi固定收益部门全球主管埃里克•布拉德(Eric Brard)表示,他对总体的债券供应不太担心,但确实仍然关注于追求较高的收益率。
“It’s going to be more about name picking, and it will be more favourable to portfolio mangers with the ability to analyse individual credits.”
布拉德把2012年视为变革的一年,投资者在那一年中更关心的是大势。他预测,在2013年,投资者对外围国家风险较高的资产将保持旺盛需求,但他表示,投资者未来必须更具体的分析他们所瞄准的信贷产品。

“对投资者而言,未来更重要的将是确定购买什么产品;对管理资产组合的投资经理而言,具备分析单个信贷产品的能力将是一个优势。”

译者:梁艳裳
 

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