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亚洲银行面临挑战 Tide of change could engulf Asia’s banks

作者:英语作文网   来源: www.en369.cn  

亚洲银行面临挑战 Tide of change could engulf Asia’s banks

In its most recent regulatory filing late last year, Focus Media , a Chinese advertising company listed in New York, disclosed details of the financing that will facilitate a deal to take it private.
在去年末提交的最新监管申报文件中,在纽约上市的中国广告公司分众传媒(Focus Media)披露了支持其回归私有计划的融资安排细节。
The $3.1bn transaction is the largest-ever buyout in China, according to Dealogic. The buyers – alongside the chairman of the company – include three private equity houses, Carlyle, Citic Capital and FountainVest, a local group founded by Frank Tang, a former Goldman Sachs and Temasek executive.
Dealogic数据显示,价值31亿美元的分众传媒私有化是中国史上最大的一笔收购案。除了公司董事长,其他买家还包括凯雷(Carlyle)、中信资本(Citic Capital)和方源资本(FountainVest)三家私募股权公司。方源资本是中国本土的私募股权公司,创始人为唐葵(Frank Tang),他曾经在高盛(Goldman Sachs)和淡马锡(Temasek)担任高管。
The largest portion of the $1.5bn in debt financing, meanwhile, comes from China Development Bank and China Minsheng Bank – a policy bank and a second-tier but relatively commercial bank respectively. Traditionally such leveraged lending has not been associated with either category.
而15亿美元债务融资中的最大部分来自中国国家开发银行(CDB)和中国民生银行(China Minsheng Bank)。前者是一家政策银行,后者是一家商业化程度较高的二线银行。传统上,此类杠杆贷款与这两类机构无缘。
But the long-term growth rate is slowing in China. Even Beijing is concluding that whatever growth there is can no longer come from debt-driven investment in infrastructure and other areas, and must come instead from domestic consumption. So banks in China will have to seek out new opportunities.
但是中国的长期增长率已开始放慢。就连中国政府也得出结论:无论能够实现多少增长,都不再能来自基建等领域的债务推动投资,而必须来自国内消费。因此,中国的银行将不得不寻找新的机会。
The challenge is not unique to China. Banks have long been considered a proxy for growth in their home markets. This year is likely to be challenging for many banks in Asia as growth slows across the region. The bearish case was outlined in a recent Morgan Stanley report, which noted that as deficits grow, on the current account side or the fiscal side, the quality of the Chinese banks’ balance sheets will deteriorate; it added that their deposit growth and liquidity will also suffer.
面临这一挑战的并非只有中国。长时间以来,银行一直被视为本土市场增长的代表。随着亚洲各地增长放缓,今年该地区的许多银行将面临挑战。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)不久前发布的一份报告,概述了这一悲观分析。该报告称,随着赤字上升(无论是在经常账户还是财政方面),中国各银行资产负债表的质量将会恶化;报告还补充道,这些银行的存款增长和流动性也将受到影响。
That in turn leaves less capital as a cushion and puts upward pressure on interest rates. Exports have been dropping, demographic trends are turning more negative and productivity growth is lagging. Current account surpluses, which were more than 7 per cent of gross domestic product in 2007, are likely to be about 2 per cent for 2012.
这一状况进而将导致银行缓冲资本金减少,并对利率构成上行压力。出口持续减少,人口结构的变化趋势对增长更加不利,而生产率提高速度也在放缓。2012年,经常账户盈余与国内生产总值(GDP)的比率可能为2%左右,而2007年该比率高于7%。
In the past China has always managed to grow out of its problems and its banks have been able to increase their good assets to keep the proportion of bad loans small. But now that the economy is slowing, the excessive credit growth of recent years may prove problematic. Bank of China, for example, grew its loan book 49 per cent in 2009 alone, according to data from Morgan Stanley. Is it really possible to swell lending at that rate and not have problems? Moreover, there is concern about areas where the shadow banking system meets the official banking system, particularly in the form of wealth management products from trust companies that banks have been marketing with higher rates than deposits. These bring new potential contingent liabilities that increase risks in the banking sector.
以前,中国总是能够通过增长来摆脱问题,各银行也总有办法增加优质资产,以便把不良贷款的比例保持在较低水平。但由于经济增长已开始放慢,近年信贷的过度增长可能引起麻烦。例如,摩根士丹利数据显示,中国银行(BoC)仅2009年的贷款总额便增加了49%。贷款规模真有可能以如此的速度继续扩张,而不会遭遇任何问题吗?此外,引起人们担忧的还有影子银行与正规银行体系业务交集的多个领域,特别是银行以收益率高于存款利率为卖点、大力销售的信托公司理财产品。这带来了潜在的或有负债,增加了银行业的风险。
In Japan, the banks are even more vulnerable. If Shinzo Abe, the country’s new prime minister, succeeds in finally generating inflation, interest rates will go up and the banks will face huge losses on their government bond portfolios – holdings that amount to nine times their capital, according to an estimate from JPMorgan’s private bank. So far corporate loans haven’t been a concern because Japanese interest rates are so low that servicing debt has been easy. But last year, corporate distress started to move up the chain from commoditised companies lacking a real competitive edge, such as the chipmaker Elpida Memory, to those with serious technology of their own such as electronics group Sharp. Whole sectors are in trouble, such as shipping. Japan’s banks are doubly exposed, by both lending to clients and holding their shares.
日本的银行甚至更脆弱。如果新任首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)成功地终于催生通胀,那么利率将会上调,银行持有的国债组合将蒙受巨额亏损。摩根大通(JPMorgan)的私人银行部门估计,日本各银行所持国债组合的规模达到自身资本金的9倍。迄今公司贷款尚未引起人们的担心,这是因为日本利率水平如此之低,偿还债务一直很轻松。但在去年,公司困境开始向产业链上端蔓延,由芯片制造商Elpida Memory等没有真正竞争优势的商品化公司,蔓延至电子集团夏普(Sharp)等拥有自主技术的公司。某些行业(如航运业)整体陷入经营困难。由于既向客户发放贷款又持有其股份,日本银行业暴露于双重风险。
The story in India isn’t much brighter. Because of India’s fiscal deficit, widening current account deficit and weak currency, the country has to import capital, which is ever more costly. Standard and Poor’s is looking at downgrading the country, possibly to junk status. The loan to deposit ratio at all Indian banks adjusted for restructured assets is already more than 100 per cent. Some public sector banks have dangerously large exposures to struggling infrastructure projects.
印度的情形并不光明多少。由于背负财政赤字,经常账户赤字扩大且汇率走弱,印度不得不依赖日益昂贵的输入资本。标普(Standard and Poor’s)正在考虑调降印度的信用评级,有可能会调至垃圾级。经重组资产调整后,印度所有银行的贷存比均高于100%。有些国有银行在陷入困境的基建项目上的敞口大得危险。
Finally, in many cases, shadow banks have come in and picked off the highest-return parts of the lending business. While Asian banks have filled part of the gap left by the Europeans pulling back, they have been in the most senior part of the capital structure, where risks are lowest and margins thinnest. Meanwhile, the lower, more junior debt, where margins are fat but there is a scarcity of capital providers, has seen an influx of hedge funds, gleefully noting that because rates have come down for their own financing, they can afford to pay far more for the riskier stuff.
最终,在许多情况下,影子银行都是乘虚而入,摘取贷款业务中回报率最高的部分。尽管亚洲的银行填补了欧洲银行撤出留下的部分空缺,但它们都活跃于资本结构中的高级领域——风险最小,利润率也最薄。同时,在较低的次级债领域(利润率颇高,但资本提供者很少),涌入了大批的对冲基金。这些对冲基金欣喜地看到,由于它们自己的融资利率下降,他们有财力为高风险资产付出更高价格。
Their borrowers will continue to bow low to bankers. But shareholders may not.
需向银行借钱的人仍将对银行家们毕恭毕敬。但股东们可能不会这样。
Henny Sender is the Financial Times’ chief international finance correspondent
桑晓霓是英国《金融时报》首席国际金融记者

译者:邢嵬
 

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