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新年股市上涨行情具有欺骗性 New year equity rally flatters to deceive investors

作者:英语作文网   来源: www.en369.cn  

Appearances may be deceptive when it comes to US equities.
就美国股市而言,表象可能具有欺骗性。
January has been one for the bulls so far with the S and P 500 rising nearly 5 per cent and equity volatility hitting a series of lows not seen since 2007.
对看涨美国股市者而言,今年1月的股市迄今为止就是如此。标准普尔500指数(S and P 500)上涨近5%,股票波动性接连创下自2007年以来不曾出现的新低位。
At a reading of 12.59, implied volatility as measured by the CBOE’s Vix certainly suggests Wall Street’s “fear gauge” is hibernating for the winter.
芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)波动率指数(Volatility Index,简称Vix)衡量标准普尔500指数期权的隐含波动率,是华尔街的“恐惧指示计”。该指数目前为12.59,这表明这个指标正在“冬眠”。
Interpreted another way, the low Vix is a sign of investor confidence that stocks are set to climb further, particularly when the financial system is awash with money from profligate central banks.
如果换一种方法解读,Vix指数较低,表明投资者相信股市将继续攀升,尤其是在各国央行肆意投放的资金充斥金融体系的时候。
“Central banks are flooding the system with money and we are not seeing the danger sign of inflation,” says Vadim Zlotnikov, chief market strategist at Alliance Bernstein.
联博有限公司(Alliance Bernstein)首席市场策略师瓦季姆•兹洛特尼科夫(Vadim Zlotnikov)表示:“各国央行正在向金融体系注入大量资金,同时没有迹象显示可能出现通胀。”
He adds: “Volatility is surprisingly low, but we are in a sweet spot for markets.”
他补充称:“波动性出奇的低,我们正处于一个市场的‘甜蜜点’(sweet spot)。”
Also helping depress volatility is the growing role of passive investment strategies that merely seek to follow an index, as popularised by fast-growing exchange traded funds.
帮助抑制波动性的因素还有:被动投资策略日趋重要,这种策略单纯致力于追随一种指数。交易所交易基金(ETF)的蓬勃发展让这种投资策略变得流行。
But in a sign that the Vix may be misleadingly low, correlation, which tracks how S and P 500 sectors behave in relation to each other, rose over the new year to 88.5 per cent, up sharply over the past three months, according to ConvergEx.
然而有迹象表明,Vix处于低位可能具有误导性。根据ConvergEx的数据,今年以来,标准普尔500各板块相互间走势的相关性升至88.5%,远远高于过去3个月的水平。
That means investors still face a market that swings between the duelling sentiments of “risk on” and “risk off” and is evidence that for all the bullish talk about equities, markets have yet to recover fully from the financial crisis and extended central bank suppport.
这意味着,投资者面对的仍然是一个会在“风险追逐”(risk on)和“风险规避”(risk off)两种对立情绪之间摇摆的市场,这还表明,尽管股市上有一些看涨言论,但市场尚未完全从此次金融危机中复苏,并仍然依赖央行支持措施的延长。
That matters for investors and money managers for important reasons.
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A healthy stock market is deemed one where fundamentals and economics dictate price changes, leading to divergences between industry sectors that each tend to react differently to the underlying macro story.
这对投资者和资金管理公司至关重要,其中有着重要原因。
High correlation mitigates such moves as all sectors tend to rise and fall together.
人们认为,在一个健康的股市中,决定股价变动的必然是基本面因素和经济数据,这会导致不同的行业板块表现各异,因为每个行业板块对宏观经济状况的反应各不相同。
“We would love to think we will see a decoupling of correlation, but that will require more confidence in the market,” says Timothy Gould, head of US equity capital markets at Macquarie Capital.
强相关性减少了这些差异,因为所有板块往往一起涨跌。
Barry Knapp, head of US equity strategy at Barclays, says higher option premiums for the Vix beyond one month suggests investors are mindful that correlation could intensify against the backdrop of fiscal gridlock in Washington. “The flows we see as a firm are biased to people buying Vix exposure for March and April due to the risk of a macro correlation surge.”
麦格理资本(Macquarie Capital)美国股票资本市场主管蒂莫西•古尔德(Timothy Gould)表示:“我们愿意认为,市场将摆脱相关性的影响,但这需要市场信心进一步增强才能实现。”
Correlations are not a new problem. A 1994 paper by academics at Rutgers University into stock price movements in the 1920s and the 1930s found that what the authors call “excess comovement in returns” for stocks “increased significantly during the boom and was a signal characteristic of the tumultuous market of the early 1930s”.
巴克莱(Barclays)美股策略主管巴里•耐普(Barry Knapp)表示,一个月以上Vix期权溢价较高表明,投资者考虑到,在美国财政陷入僵局的背景之下,相关性可能进一步增强。“我们之所以会认为这是一种稳固的趋势,是因为看到投资者因宏观相关性可能飙升而纷纷购买3月和4月的Vix期权。”
For today’s investors there is a similar sense of frustration as high correlation reinforces pricing inefficiencies for active stock pickers and investors seeking to unlock opportunities.
相关性并非新问题。1994年,罗格斯大学(Rutgers University)的几位学者发表的一篇的论文探讨了上世纪20年代和30年代的股价波动。文章发现,“在股市繁荣时期”,作者所称的股票“回报率联动过度”现象“大大增加,并且是上世纪30年代初动荡市场的标志性特点”。
“Right now it’s a trend that is firmly in place and is confounding and frustrating for stock pickers,” says Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank.
如今的投资者也怀有类似的失望情绪,因为强相关性会加剧希望开启机会之门的投资者和积极选股者的定价无效率。
As more investors buy and sell ETFs and indices, it helps maintain higher correlation between sectors.
Harris Private Bank首席投资官杰克•阿布林(Jack Ablin)表示:“目前,这种趋势已牢牢确立,并让选股者感到困惑和郁闷。”
“When you have instruments that want to mimic the market, it automatically increases correlation as you have fewer people making directional bets,” says Mr Gould.
随着更多投资者买卖ETF和指数,这进一步增强了各个板块之间的相关性。
The move towards indexing comes after active managers were beaten by the rise in markets last year. The worry is that large amounts of money moving into passive investing strategies can lead to distorted prices.
古尔德表示:“如果存在希望模拟市场波动的投资工具,相关性就会自动增强,因为押注市场走向的投资者变少了。”
“An expensive sector can become more expensive, while a cheap sector can get a lot cheaper, testing the will of those investors that see valuation discrepancies and are trying to get in between them,“ says Mr Ablin.
在被去年市场的上涨行情所击败之后,原本采取积极投资策略的基金经理转向了指数产品。人们担心,大量资金转向被动投资策略,可能扭曲价格。
ETFs are seen as having clipped the peaks and troughs of the market and thus mitigated volatility. Last week, BlackRock, the world’s largest money manager, reported net inflows of $37.5bn into its ETFs for the final three months of 2012.
阿布林表示:“昂贵的板块可能会变得更昂贵,廉价的板块可能会愈发廉价,这将测试那些看到估值差异并试图在两者之间找到投资点的投资者的意志力。”
Exchange traded funds had a net inflow of $189.5bn in 2012, the strongest year since 2008, according to Birinyi Associates.
人们认为,ETF会削平市场波峰、拉高市场波谷,因此降低市场波动性。最近,全球最大基金管理公司贝莱德(BlackRock)公布,去年最后3个月,其ETF的资金净流入为375亿美元。
“I do wonder if we are not in a structurally different era with more money moving into index products,” says Mr Zlotnikov.
根据Birinyi Associates的数据,ETF去年的资金净流入为1895亿美元,创下2008年以来的最高纪录。
A relatively benign reversal of the index trade that reduces correlation may occur as investors focus more on picking stocks that could benefit from leveraged buyouts or M and A activity.
兹洛特尼科夫表示:“我真的怀疑,我们正处于一个结构发生变化的时期,更多资金正流向指数产品。”
But there is a worry that the macro approach could eventually hit the wall.
随着投资者更多地关注于选择可能受益于杠杆收购或并购活动的股票,指数交易的增长趋势可能出现相对良性的逆转,从而降低相关性。
“The less benign way is that volatility rises and the index approach to managing risk is no longer attractive,” says Mr Zlotnikov.
但人们担心,宏观策略可能最终受挫。
Ultimately, the tide floating all equity boats is coming from the Federal Reserve.
兹洛特尼科夫表示:“不太良性的情况是波动性上升,作为管理风险方法的指数策略也不再具有吸引力。”
“The next data point that may break correlation is a change in Fed policy,” says Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx.
最后,让所有个股之船浮起来的潮水来自美联储(Fed)。
That could entail a sharp rise in the Vix, should correlation remain high.
ConvergEx首席市场策略师尼古拉斯•克拉斯(Nicholas Colas)表示:“下一个可能削弱相关性的数据点(data point)是美联储的政策发生转变。”
“I’m coming to the conclusion that these higher correlations will be with us for a long time. Most commonly, volatility rises to meet correlations, rather than the other way around,” says Mr Colas.
如果相关性维持在高位,美联储的政策转变可能造成Vix指数大幅上升。

克拉斯表示:“我的结论是,目前这种相关性较强的情况将伴随我们很长时间。最常见的情况是,波动性上升,以适应相关性,而非相反。”

译者:梁艳裳

 

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