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世界需要重振多边贸易体系 Regional ventures form part of new way forward

作者:英语作文网   来源: www.en369.cn  

In late September, economic weakness around the world caused economists at the World Trade Organisation in Geneva to scale back their forecasts. In 2012, trade would no longer expand at a rate of 3.7 per cent, as previously predicted, but 2.5 per cent instead. For 2013, the prognosis was also reduced – to an expansion of 4.5 per cent from 5.6 per cent.
去年9月末,在世界各地普遍经济低迷之际,参加世贸组织(WTO)日内瓦会议的经济学家们调低了预测。2012年,全球贸易扩张幅度将不会达到先前预测的3.7%,而是只会扩张2.5%。2013年的增幅预测也被调低,由5.6%降至4.5%。
It was the latest sign that persistent trouble in the global economy – from slow growth in developing countries to slowdowns in some emerging economies – was limiting the strength in the recovery of global trade after the dip it took during the 2008/09 financial crisis.
这是全球经济的持续麻烦——从发展中国家的低增长,到部分新兴国家的增长放缓——削弱全球贸易复苏力度的最新迹象。在此前2008/09年的金融危机中,全球贸易大幅下滑。
For Pascal Lamy, director-general of the WTO, it was the latest sign that additional action was required on a policy level to rev up the engine of global trade. “More needs to be done,” Mr Lamy said. “We need a renewed commitment to revitalise the multilateral trading system which can restore economic certainty at a time when it is badly needed.”
在世贸组织(WTO)总干事帕斯卡尔·拉米(Pascal Lamy)看来,这一最新迹象表明,必须采取额外的政策手段,才能使全球贸易“发动机”加速运转。“需要采取更多行动,”拉米表示,“我们需要各方再度承诺重振多边贸易体系,以重获亟需的经济确定性。”
Mr Lamy’s term at the WTO expires at the end of August, and nine candidates are lining up for his replacement – including three each from Asia and Latin America; two from Africa, and one from New Zealand.
拉米在世贸组织的任期将于今年8月底结束,可能接替他的有9位候选人——其中,亚洲和拉丁美洲各3人,非洲2人,新西兰1人。
But, regardless of Mr Lamy’s replacement, the new WTO head will be facing the same, daunting challenge of reinvigorating efforts to craft a multilateral trade deal from the ashes of the decade-old Doha round, which ran out of steam long ago.
但是,不论未来谁来接替拉米,新的WTO掌舵人都将面临同样的艰巨挑战——从早已失去势头的10年多哈回合谈判的灰烬再生,推动各方为达成一项多边贸易协议而共同努力。
“I think the big question is whether the major powers – China, the US, the European Union, Brazil, India – really want to put some energy into harvesting what can be harvested from the Doha round,” says Gary Hufbauer, a former US Treasury department official who is now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “The US has been conspicuously silent on this – but so have the others,” adds Mr Hufbauer.
美国财政部前官员、现在是彼得森国际经济研究所(PIIE)高级研究员的加里•赫夫鲍尔(Gary Hufbauer)表示:“有个很大的问题是,中国、美国、欧盟(EU)、巴西和印度等大国是否真的愿意付出努力,让多哈回合谈判结出它所能结出的果实。”赫夫鲍尔补充道:“美国明显在这方面一直保持着沉默,但其他国家也是如此。”
Expectations have long dwindled that the full Doha round could be resurrected, certainly not before trade ministers hold their next major WTO summit in Bali in December, but the more likely scenario is that certain elements of the global trade agenda – such as a deal on an International Services Agreement – could be addressed on a piecemeal basis.
长期以来,外界对重启多哈回合谈判的预期一直不高——至少不会在今年12月各国贸易部长汇聚印尼巴厘岛,举行下一轮WTO峰会之前重启。更可能出现的局面是,全球贸易议程的某些要素,比如达成《国际服务业协定》(International Services Agreement),有可能实现“单兵突破”。
“We think this is going to be a year with a lot of activity, but not necessarily a lot of conclusions,” says Bill Reinsch, president of the National Foreign Trade Council, a Washington-based lobbying group for trade liberalisation.
旨在推动贸易自由化的华盛顿游说团体——美国对外贸易委员会(NFTC)主席比尔•赖因施(Bill Reinsch)表示:“我们认为,今年各方将进行频繁的磋商,但未必能敲定许多方案。”
Amid the search for a new path forward in the near-defunct multilateral trade agenda, many large countries are embarking on regional ventures to fill the void and make some progress towards greater market access.
为了在近乎流产的多边贸易议程中闯出一条新路,许多大国都在以地区合作方式填补空白,并在放宽市场准入上取得了一定的进展。
For instance, countries negotiating the formation of a Trans-Pacific Partnership – including Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam and the US – cited progress in the wake of their most recent talks in New Zealand in December, which for the first time also included Canada and Mexico. The 16th round of discussions will be held in Singapore in March, and optimists hope that a deal can be inked by the end of the year, though that may be wishful thinking.
比如,正在磋商构建“跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定”(简称TPP)的国家——包括澳大利亚、文莱、智利、马来西亚、新西兰、秘鲁、新加坡、越南和美国——指出它们在去年12月新西兰谈判之后取得的进展。那次谈判第一次把加拿大和墨西哥吸收进来。第16轮磋商将于3月在新加坡举行,乐观人士希望今年底前能签署一份协议,不过这可能是一厢情愿。
An even more ambitious project, arguably, is the creation of a trade deal between the EU and the US, uniting the two economic powers in a way that has so far been elusive, and setting the standard on measures such as the protection of intellectual property rights. A working group led by EU trade commissioner Karel De Gucht and US trade representative Ron Kirk was expected this month to suggest the launch of formal negotiations, though huge challenges remain in crafting a deal and none will be forthcoming soon, with many judging it virtually impossible this year.
可以说,更具雄心的项目是达成一项欧美贸易协议,把两大经济体通过一种前所未有的方式联系起来,为保护知识产权(IPR)等方面的措施制定出标准。由欧盟贸易专员卡洛•德古赫特(Karel de Gucht)和美国贸易代表罗恩•柯克(Ron Kirk)领导的一个工作组,预计在本月宣布启动正式谈判。不过,在草拟一份协定方面仍存在多项艰巨的挑战,协定不会在短期内达成,许多人认为此事今年内根本没有指望。
Meanwhile, China, Japan, and South Korea are laying the groundwork for their own three-way trade pact, despite some geopolitical tensions. “The big thing which might emerge in 2013-2014 is a China/Japan/Korea agreement,” says Mr Hufbauer. “At the moment it seems a bit far-fetched but it could be big stuff if they decided to go forward.”
与此同时,尽管存在一些地缘政治紧张,但中日韩三国正为签订三边贸易协定做准备工作。赫夫鲍尔表示:“中日韩达成贸易协定,可能是2013至2014年间的一件大事。此事目前看来似乎遥不可及,但如果这三个国家决心向前推进,就很可能带来重大的突破。”
As these efforts towards regional trade integration proceed, the WTO, trade officials and experts around the world, as well as business groups, are closely watching whether countries will tone down some of the measures to protect domestic industries that have flourished in recent years, leading to charges of protectionism. Such policies have rankled trade relations and led to increasing trade tensions, including within the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism.
在这些旨在推进地区贸易融合的努力取得进展之际,世贸组织、全球贸易官员和专家,以及商业团体都在密切注视相关国家是否将弱化一些旨在保护国内产业的措施。近年来此类措施大行其道,导致有关保护主义的指控。此类政策破坏了贸易关系,导致贸易紧张升温,包括在世贸组织的争端解决机制内部。
“The last thing the world needs right now is the threat of rising protectionism,” says Mr Lamy.
拉米表示:“现在,世界最不愿看到的事情就是保护主义加剧的威胁。”

译者:邢嵬
 

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