全球公司债频发 收益率堪忧 Global bond rush disguises lack of high-yield assets
With a temporary solution to the US fiscal cliff agreed and the European Central Bank’s pledge to backstop the euro soothing nerves, US companies including Ford Motor and General Electric Capital have taken advantage of a broad market rally. Last week they sold over $12bn in new debt in a single day.
随着美国就“财政悬崖”达成临时解决方案、欧洲央行(ECB)承诺力挺欧元，市场的紧张情绪正趋于缓和。福特汽车(Ford Motor)、通用电气金融(GE Capital)等美国企业都抓住了市场全面反弹的机会。上周，这些企业在单日内发债金额超过了120亿美元。
European banks and Chinese property developers were also quick off the mark.
Yet amid the market glow, investors are fretting that the expected January flurry will disguise a more fundamental issue – a lack of supply of high-yielding assets.
With some government bond yields at record lows, investors last year chased returns in other parts of the bond market. Now they could struggle to repeat 2012’s performance.
Analysts predict that debt sales in the US this year will fall short of the record levels of 2012, when $1.4tn of bonds were sold. Barclays estimates overall debt sales in the US this year of $1tn, with up to $300bn coming from borrowers with ratings below investment-grade, down from $345bn in 2011.
Société Générale, meanwhile, predicts that European corporate bond issuance could be down by a third this year, with that from financial institutions falling 10 per cent.
“There is very high demand for credit assets at the moment, with too much money chasing too few assets.” says Neil Williamson, head of European credit research at Aberdeen Asset Management.
安本资产管理公司(Aberdeen Asset Management)欧洲信贷研究主管尼尔•威廉姆森(Neil Williamson)表示：“目前信贷资产需求非常旺盛，资金太多，可供投资的资产却太少。”
“The worry is there is not much out there to buy with any yield, especially if you are sensitive to ratings and volatility.”
Part of the overall supply issue relates to banks either being reliant on central bank funding or shrinking their balance sheets in response to regulatory changes and weak growth. Lenders have less need to tap public debt market.