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全球公司债频发 收益率堪忧 Global bond rush disguises lack of high-yield assets

全球公司债频发 收益率堪忧 Global bond rush disguises lack of high-yield assets

With a temporary solution to the US fiscal cliff agreed and the European Central Bank’s pledge to backstop the euro soothing nerves, US companies including Ford Motor and General Electric Capital have taken advantage of a broad market rally. Last week they sold over $12bn in new debt in a single day.
随着美国就“财政悬崖”达成临时解决方案、欧洲央行(ECB)承诺力挺欧元,市场的紧张情绪正趋于缓和。福特汽车(Ford Motor)、通用电气金融(GE Capital)等美国企业都抓住了市场全面反弹的机会。上周,这些企业在单日内发债金额超过了120亿美元。
European banks and Chinese property developers were also quick off the mark.
欧洲的银行和中国的房地产开发商也不失时机地采取了行动。
Yet amid the market glow, investors are fretting that the expected January flurry will disguise a more fundamental issue – a lack of supply of high-yielding assets.
然而,在市场红红火火之际,投资者担心,尽管1月预计将是发债活动频繁的一个月,但一个更根本的问题可能被掩盖,即:高收益资产供应不足。
With some government bond yields at record lows, investors last year chased returns in other parts of the bond market. Now they could struggle to repeat 2012’s performance.
由于一些政府债券收益率处于创纪录低位,投资者去年一直在债券市场的其他领域追求高回报率。对投资者而言,去年的业绩如今可能很难再现。
Analysts predict that debt sales in the US this year will fall short of the record levels of 2012, when $1.4tn of bonds were sold. Barclays estimates overall debt sales in the US this year of $1tn, with up to $300bn coming from borrowers with ratings below investment-grade, down from $345bn in 2011.
分析师预测,美国今年的债券发行量将不及2012年的创纪录高位,去年美国的债券发行规模达到1.4万亿美元。巴克莱(Barclays)估计,美国今年的债券发行总规模将达到1万亿美元,其中将有最多3000亿美元来自评级低于投资级别的借款者,这个数字低于2011年的3450亿美元。
Société Générale, meanwhile, predicts that European corporate bond issuance could be down by a third this year, with that from financial institutions falling 10 per cent.
同时,法国兴业银行(Société Générale)预测,今年欧洲公司债发行规模可能下降三分之一,金融机构的债券发行规模可能下降10%。
“There is very high demand for credit assets at the moment, with too much money chasing too few assets.” says Neil Williamson, head of European credit research at Aberdeen Asset Management.
安本资产管理公司(Aberdeen Asset Management)欧洲信贷研究主管尼尔•威廉姆森(Neil Williamson)表示:“目前信贷资产需求非常旺盛,资金太多,可供投资的资产却太少。”
“The worry is there is not much out there to buy with any yield, especially if you are sensitive to ratings and volatility.”
“市场担心,可供购买的各种收益率的债券都不是很多,特别是如果你对评级和波动性敏感的话。”
Part of the overall supply issue relates to banks either being reliant on central bank funding or shrinking their balance sheets in response to regulatory changes and weak growth. Lenders have less need to tap public debt market.

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