亚洲银行面临挑战 Tide of change could engulf Asia’s banks
In its most recent regulatory filing late last year, Focus Media , a Chinese advertising company listed in New York, disclosed details of the financing that will facilitate a deal to take it private.
The $3.1bn transaction is the largest-ever buyout in China, according to Dealogic. The buyers – alongside the chairman of the company – include three private equity houses, Carlyle, Citic Capital and FountainVest, a local group founded by Frank Tang, a former Goldman Sachs and Temasek executive.
Dealogic数据显示，价值31亿美元的分众传媒私有化是中国史上最大的一笔收购案。除了公司董事长，其他买家还包括凯雷(Carlyle)、中信资本(Citic Capital)和方源资本(FountainVest)三家私募股权公司。方源资本是中国本土的私募股权公司，创始人为唐葵(Frank Tang)，他曾经在高盛(Goldman Sachs)和淡马锡(Temasek)担任高管。
The largest portion of the $1.5bn in debt financing, meanwhile, comes from China Development Bank and China Minsheng Bank – a policy bank and a second-tier but relatively commercial bank respectively. Traditionally such leveraged lending has not been associated with either category.
而15亿美元债务融资中的最大部分来自中国国家开发银行(CDB)和中国民生银行(China Minsheng Bank)。前者是一家政策银行，后者是一家商业化程度较高的二线银行。传统上，此类杠杆贷款与这两类机构无缘。
But the long-term growth rate is slowing in China. Even Beijing is concluding that whatever growth there is can no longer come from debt-driven investment in infrastructure and other areas, and must come instead from domestic consumption. So banks in China will have to seek out new opportunities.
The challenge is not unique to China. Banks have long been considered a proxy for growth in their home markets. This year is likely to be challenging for many banks in Asia as growth slows across the region. The bearish case was outlined in a recent Morgan Stanley report, which noted that as deficits grow, on the current account side or the fiscal side, the quality of the Chinese banks’ balance sheets will deteriorate; it added that their deposit growth and liquidity will also suffer.
That in turn leaves less capital as a cushion and puts upward pressure on interest rates. Exports have been dropping, demographic trends are turning more negative and productivity growth is lagging. Current account surpluses, which were more than 7 per cent of gross domestic product in 2007, are likely to be about 2 per cent for 2012.